Everything’s Going To Be Just Fine In … oh… About 100 Years.

Posted: April 23, 2008 in Your Money
Tags: ,

” First, remember that predictors of doom make headlines precisely because their positions are so extreme. Most forecasters are more positive. “
  1. canuck99 says:

    Thought it would be good to check out the best points the flip side has to offer–it ain’t much. Most of his comparisons are now to the 1930s depression, which is a change. (His ilk have previously avoided the ‘D’ word and focussed on the recessions of the 70s and 80s.) The predictors of doom include such ‘extremists’ as Lee Iacocca, George Soros, Jim Rogers and, yes, the very Warren Buffett that he selectively quotes in the article (WB coined the phrase ‘financial weapons of mass destruction’ for the multi-trillion-dollar derivatives market and refers to the US as a sharecropper society — translation: serfs). His comparisons to the stagnations of Japan are IMHO the most apt, but he omits that the Nikkei tanked 75% from its high and now 20 years later is only half-way back–an equivalent drop for the DOW would send it tumbling from a 14000 high down to 3500 (hyperinflation notwithstanding). The writer continually skirts the seriously-dangerous short-term consequenses of the current economic mess and promotes the heck out of the long-term. How long does he have in mind? 25 years? 50 years? Of course things will be better in the long-term when you don’t set a timeframe. How do eon-like long-terms help you when you’re dead? (’Honey, I know these dark ages are a drag but the Roman Empire’s gonna bounce back, baby. Just be patient.’)… I realize it won’t get that bad, but I’m almost positive that the only way we’re ever going to see 14000 DOW in our lifetime again is if Bernanke turns the Fed’s monopoly-money-machine into a hyperinflationary, Zimbabwe-style, monetary explosion.

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